Eurizon’s view takes the name “The Globe”

The baseline scenario combines stable growth in the US with a gradual reacceleration in the Eurozone, where inflation is close to target and should prompt the ECB to cut rates further in the autumn. Inflation has resumed declining in the United States, and expectations are now for an initial Fed rate cut in September. Also in the US, increasing focus on the presidential election could generate volatility on the markets, that are already stretched. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for August 2024 with Andrea Conti, Eurizon’s Head of Macro Markets. Audio recorded on 24 July 2024.

The baseline scenario combines stable growth in the US with a gradual reacceleration in the Eurozone. Inflation seems to be stabilising at close to the ECB’s target rate, but in the United States is still above the Fed’s target. The French elections are a source of temporary volatility.   Discover Eurizon’s positioning for July 2024 with Andrea Conti, Eurizon’s Head of Macro Markets. Audio recorded on 2 July 2024.

The baseline scenario combines stable growth in the US and a gradual reacceleration in the Eurozone, with inflation close to the ECB’s target in the euro area, but still above the Fed’s target in the United States. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for June 2024 with Andrea Conti, Head of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 30 May 2024.

Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the month ahead, in light of a baseline scenario that combines stable growth in the US and a gradual reacceleration in the Eurozone. Inflation seems to be stabilising and is close to target in the Eurozone, but still above target in the US. Impact of geopolitical themes modest. Audio recorded on 30 Apr. 2024.

Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the coming month, in light of a baseline scenario that combines a slower downtrend of inflation compared to the second half of 2023, stable growth in the US, and signals of the slowdown in the Eurozone coming to an end. The central banks have declared they intend to cut policy rates, but not before mid-year. Geopolitical themes are having a modest impact. Audio recorded on 28 March 2024.

Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the coming month, in light of a baseline scenario that combines inflation converging towards the central banks’ targets and expectations for the global economic cycle to continue. The Fed and ECB still intend to lower policy rates in the second half of the year, and the market impact of geopolitical tensions remains modest. Audio recorded on 22 Feb. 2024.

baseline scenario that combines inflation closing in on central bank targets with expectations for an ongoing global economic cycle. The Fed and the ECB intend to lower rates in the second half of the year. Geopolitical tensions are only reaping modest impacts on the markets. Audio recorded on 01 Feb. 2024.

baseline scenario that combines inflation on the decline to target, and slowing economic activity in the Eurozone, but not in the US. The central banks have completed their hike cycles and could cut rates could cut them in 2024 once the downtrend of inflation has consolidated. The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and in Ukraine are reaping a modest macro and market impact. Audio recorded on 19 Dec. 2023.

Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning going forward, with a baseline scenario that combines inflation closing in on central bank targets with slowing economic activity in the Eurozone, but not in the US. The central banks have put the rate hike cycle on hold and are leaning towards keeping rates in restrictive territory in order to consolidate the decline of inflation. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and in Ukraine are having modest impacts at both the macro level and on the markets. Audio recorded on 29 Nov. 2023

Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning going forward, considering a scenario that combines declining inflation – but still above target – with slowing economic activity in the Eurozone, but not in the United States. The central banks have put their rate hike cycles on hold, but are set on keeping a restrictive stance in waiting for inflation to drop further. Modest impact on the markets of the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Audio recorded on 26 Oct. 2023.

Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizo’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team explains Eurizon’s positioning going forward, faced with a scenario that combines declining inflation – but still above target – with resilient economic activity to the monetary restriction, that leaves the central banks in no rush to announce the end of the rate hike cycle, although the restriction effectively seems to be on hold. Audio recorded on 27 Sep. 2023.

Andrea Conti, Head of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains Eurizon’s positioning for August 2023 in consideration of a baseline scenario that combines falling inflation, albeit still above target, and resilient economic activity despite the monetary restriction, reason for which the central banks are in no hurry to declare the rate hike cycle as over. Audio recorded on 27 July 2023.

Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning as we enter July 2023, in light of a baseline scenario that combines a sluggish decline of inflation with slowing but still positive economic growth. Resilient growth is prompting the central banks to keep up monetary restriction, that nonetheless seems to be approaching completion. Watch the video to find out how we are positioned for July. Audio recorded on 28 June 2023.

Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the month of June 2023, in view of a baseline scenario that points to slowing economic growth and declining inflation, albeit still higher than central bank target rates. Audio recorded on 30 May 2023.

Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the month of May 2023, in view of a baseline scenario that points to slowing economic growth and declining inflation, albeit still higher than central bank target rates. Product Specialist Cecilia Barazzetta then takes a closer look at the Corporate Bond market. Audio recorded on 28 Apr. 2023.

Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for April 2023, in light of the tensions that have emerged in the banking system, that could prompt less hawkish central bank stances. Audio recorded on 30 Mar. 2023.

Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for March 2023, pointing out themes to watch and opportunities. A closer look at the bond universe is then offered by Maria Luisa Matarrelli, Head of Developed and Emerging Government Bond and Forex. Audio recorded on 23 Feb. 2023.

The Globe: February 2023. With inflation on the decline again in December in the US and in the Eurozone, focus is increasingly on the macro slowdown. Data are adding credibility to the hypothesis of a soft landing, rather than a sharp slowdown of the economy (hard landing). Reacceleration of the Chinese economy confirmed, on the other hand. Find out how we are positioned for February. Audio recorded on 30 Jan. 2023

The Globe: Outlook for 2023. The new year should bring declining inflation and to a simultaneous slowdown in growth. Under the baseline scenario, the central banks are expected to complete their tightening cycles in the opening quarter of the year and then have a free hand in containing the slowdown of growth. As previously mentioned, in this context medium and long-term rates should stabilise, if not drop back. Easing pessimism could support stocks in the immediate term, but the recovery will in any case have to be validated by the resilience of the economic cycle. Audio recorded on 20 Dec. 2022